*Check out the full 2024 offseason guide for insight on other coaching and roster moves for the Eagles.*
Before getting into the business discussion, Fletcher Cox has meant so much to this organization and fan base. He is one of the faces of the greatest era of Eagles football and it will be a sad day when he does leave the team.
Having said that, time waits for no man. The machine has to keep running with or without Fletch and the Eagles front office will need to decide if bringing Fletch back is the right move for the future of the team. Let’s also not forget that Fletch has a say in the matter as well.
IF HE GOES
If Cox doesn’t return to the team, his contract was structured so that he could be designated as a post-6/1 release. That would mean that he has a dead cap charge of $4.2M in 2024 and $10.1M in 2025. It doesn’t feel good seeing a player not on the team taking up $10M in cap space, but that’s what happens when contracts are structured in a way to keep the cap hits down early in the contract. At some point, the piper has to be paid.
This is also important as the Eagles could potentially have roughly $60M in dead cap hits in 2025. Check out this article I wrote about the Eagles dead cap hits for more detail.
IF HE STAYS
If Fletcher decides to run it back one more time, then that will help ease the burden of his dead cap hit in 2025.
Let’s look at a couple of scenarios.
First, I think based on age and production in comparison with other recent free agents, Fletch is worth a contract in the $4M range with a $2.5M signing bonus. If his contract was structured similar to the last one, his cap hit this season would be roughly $6.2M, compared to his dead cap hit of $4.2M that is currently projected with him gone.
Then, if released post-6/1 in 2025, his dead cap hit would be $4.7M and his 2026 dead cap hit would be $7.4M.
It’s really important that you read the article I mentioned earlier about the Eagles 2025 dead cap situation. By coming back for another season, Fletch would lighten that dead cap burden for the Eagles in 2025 by $5.4M.
Now let’s say that the Eagles let Fletch walk, and instead sign a free agent to the same exact contract. That free agent would have a dead cap hit of $0.5M in 2025. But Fletch would still have his original dead cap hit of $10.1M in 2025 as well. So by not re-signing Fletch and bringing in a different free agent at the same price, the total dead cap hit would be $10.6M in 2025.
In this scenario, come 2026, the Eagles dead cap hit would only be $1.5M compared to the $7.4M if Fletch did re-sign. So, there is a tradeoff.
That was a lot of numbers I threw at you so if you’re a little lost, I’ll try to simplify it.
- The Eagles are potentially looking at a lot of dead cap hits in 2025.
- Re-signing Fletch (assuming a $4M deal) would help ease that dead cap hit in 2025 by about $5.4
- Signing a free agent to the same contract instead of Fletch would increase the Eagles dead cap hit in 2025 from $10.1M to $10.6M between Fletch and the departed free agent.
- By re-signing his dead cap hit would be $7.4M in 2026. Still a decent amount, but not as high as his 2025 dead cap would be if he didn’t re-sign.
I think the Eagles need to find a pass rusher inside to put next to Jalen Carter. If the Eagles decide to go the route of signing an aging veteran free agent similar to Fletcher Cox, then bringing back Fletch makes the most sense for the Eagles 2025 dead cap situation.
TAKES TWO TO TANGO
Of course, Cox has to agree to a contract with the Eagles as well. At a certain price, I don’t think it’s necessarily worth it to bring Fletch back. While he had a good season, as he ages, he’s getting closer and closer to the proverbial athletic cliff. And at some point, Philadelphia will have to pay that dead cap hit.
His contract in 2023 was a one year, $10M deal. If he were to command something around $8M then I would look towards free agency. He’s not performing at such a level to make bringing him back worth it that price.
Sheldon Rankins signed a one-year contract worth $9.75M last offseason with the Texans. He’s four years younger than Fletch and performed at a higher level. He’s at less of a risk of a significant decline in production due to his age. He’s a free agent again, and while I don’t think the Eagles are going to spend that much money on a defensive tackle this go round, if they do, then I’d rather go after a younger player like Rankins.
On clean out day, Cox seemed confident that he has a lot left and he probably believes he can earn a contract similar to last season. And considering beat reporters mentioned that Fletch cleared out his entire locker, something he hasn’t done in past clean out days, it appears that Fletcher Cox’s days with the Eagles are likely over.
