The Eagles head to Tampa as two-and-a-half-point road favorites against the Buccaneers in the Wildcard Round, though you won’t find many Eagle fans believing this team can win. Still, this is a game the Eagles should come out victorious, as the Bucs have a lot of issues of their own.
With the NFC South division very much available for the taking in the final two weeks of the season, Tampa Bay’s offense put up 13 points against the Saints and nine against the Panthers. Baker Mayfield is dealing with ankle and rib injuries that are affecting him as well.
The Buccaneers have also failed the majority of their big tests; they are 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs. The Eagles have had their own struggles, but this should still be a game that the Birds win.
For that to happen, these three things must be accomplished.
BALL CONTROL
Think back to the Cardinals game. Arizona had one of the worst defenses in the league this season. They weren’t particularly good against the Eagles either, as they gave up three touchdowns and a field goal on six drives. That doesn’t include the last drive where the Eagles needed to go 75 yards in 32 seconds to win the game.
But what the Cardinals did do well in Philadelphia was control the clock. They called designed runs 38 times. When they passed the ball, they opted for quick, short passes. Kyler Murray attempted a pass 31 times. 27 of those attempts traveled 10 yards or less in the air. His longest throw traveled 23 yards in the air.
As a result, the Cardinals possessed the ball for just under 40 minutes. Arizona’s long, methodical approach kept their atrocious defense off the field for much of the game. That’s how you have to play when your defense isn’t good. You can’t let opposing offenses have 70+ plays against a bad defense, they eventually figure out the best way to attack. The more the defense is on the field, the more they’ll get exposed.
This is really the strategy the Eagles need to implore the entirety of their playoff run, not just against Tampa. It makes even more sense with A.J. Brown also out for at least this game.
I’m not saying the Eagles should never take shots, it’s very difficult to score in the NFL without generating explosive plays. But they should be selective. If they end up with a pass to run ratio of 2:1, something that’s been too common in games this season, then the plan is a failure.
The Eagles are a team built to run the ball. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, a Pro Bowl running back, and a back up running back that has rounded in to form down the stretch. They also have playoff Jalen Hurts.
Unsure if they were committing to him long term last season, the Eagles didn’t hold back from letting Jalen run with physicality all season long. It was essentially a prove it year, and Jalen ran for that contract. After handing him $255M in the offseason, the organization had a significant financial incentive to increase his chances of making it to the playoffs healthy.
It was clear that for most of the season Jalen was put in bubble wrap. He is certainly fast for a QB, but a big part of his advantage as a running QB is his play strength. Not being allowed to run through tackles for much of the season really takes away one of his super powers. Getting that back for the playoffs makes this offense more dangerous.
This offense needs to control the clock. That means establishing the running game, with the backs and Jalen. Swift and Gainwell should combine for at least 25 carries, while Jalen gets eight to 10 designed QB runs. Take shots selectively, but opt for more underneath and intermediate passing. Get Swift involved on jet sweeps and screens. Use those tight end screens to Goedert that used to be a staple.
KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID
One of the most famous mantras in football. Sometimes coaches will overcomplicate the game trying to have every answer available. But that often slows the players down, especially if they’re adjusting to a new defensive coordinator 19 weeks into the season.
Philadelphia’s defenders have clearly had issues understanding their assignments the past few weeks and that’s been one of the biggest reasons for their recent decline. They’re not helped by the coaches, as they’re often rotating their back seven like a hockey shift. On top of that, they’re asking defensive linemen to drop into coverage that aren’t prepared to adjust to the situations playing out in front of them.
A big part of the reason we keep seeing our edge defenders drop into coverage is because they’re relying on five down fronts, especially when teams opt for bigger personnel groupings. I would like to say just play four down fronts and go from there but there are issues with that strategy.
If you’re playing with four down linemen, against heavier personnel you’ll have to add another linebacker or play with Nickel personnel. I don’t think the Eagles want to put Zach Cunningham, Nicholas Morrow and Shaq Leonard on the field together, so then you’d be left with Nickel personnel.
If Sydney Brown and Reed Blankenship were healthy, then they could utilize their Big Nickel grouping. However, Sydney is out for the season and we’re still unsure if Reed is playing. The Eagles are heading into the game with their starting slot corner, Avonte Maddox, playing safety. Their backup slot corner, Bradley Roby isn’t very good against the run. They often rotate Eli Ricks in at slot as well, especially on third downs. He’s not someone built to be a plus run defender either.
Thankfully, the Buccaneers don’t utilize a lot of 13 personnel or any 21/22, but they use 12 personnel a good amount. So that means the Eagles would either need to match up in a four-down front with Cunningham/Morrow/Leonard at LB or with Roby/Ricks at nickel.
On early downs, I imagine against 12 personnel they will get into their five down fronts with Cunningham and Leonard at LB. Which means we’ll probably see Reddick, Sweat, BG and Nolan Smith dropping into coverage. If I’m the Buccaneers, I’m coming out in heavy personnel groupings and getting into spread formations on early downs, just like the Cardinals did.
From a scheming perspective, the Eagles have put themselves into this corner. When they drop their edge defenders, let’s at least utilize only a handful of plays. That way there’s less on the plate for those edge defenders when they drop into coverage.
Let’s not have a situation where Morrow is trying to yell at Nolan Smith all the way on the other side of the field to run with the back as he motions across. If he motions across, have the off-ball linebacker stick with him man to man. When in coverage, rely on our base coverages that they (should) know how to execute. Do away with the stunts and exotic blitz designs where guys are lined up out of place. Put Reddick on one edge and Sweat on the other and let them rush.
To be honest, I don’t know if it will really matter if the Eagles dumb it down. The defense gave up a 69-yard touchdown against the Giants in Week 16, then another wide-open touchdown in Week 18 by blowing base coverages they’ve been running all season. The issues with this unit go beyond the play calls. Hopefully the Eagles can execute the first key of the game.
BEATING THE BLITZ
For three years, the Eagles have been unable to find consistent ways of dealing with heavy blitzing teams. It’s arguably Sirianni’s biggest offensive failure. Unfortunately, the Eagles are now facing a Todd Bowles led defense that blitzes at the third highest rate in the league.
The team second in blitz rate is the New York Giants. They dismantled the Eagles starting offense in the first half of last week’s game, though they gave up over 465 yards to them on Christmas.
Jalen Hurts second lowest passer rating against the blitz this season was against the Buccaneers in Week 3. That doesn’t bode well for this Philadelphia offense.
I will say this though, Todd Bowles blitzes primarily consist of five-man fire zone pressures. The Eagles really struggle against Cover 0 variations and when teams bring six or more rushers. It will be interesting to see if Bowles will opt for more of those looks. He ran a couple Cover 0 and six-man pressure looks in the first matchup, but that’s not something his defense lives in.
If you rewatch that matchup in Week 3, it was more of the Eagles beating themselves than anything. Jalen was protected well for most of the night, as he had an average time to throw of 2.95 seconds. He was pressured on 10 drop backs, which isn’t high but PFF credited Jalen with being responsible for 40% of those pressures by holding the ball too long. That was the highest percentage in the NFL that week.
Overall, Jalen had a game he’d probably like to have back. He had a few memorable moments, but against the blitz, there were often wide-open options that he missed. The Eagles were running a lot of the routes we’ve been wanting them to run more this season. Drag routes underneath and crossing routes deeper were staple concepts that week, and most of the time those guys were open. In addition to that, on Jalen’s first interception, Swift was wide open on an option route against a linebacker.
I say all that to makes this point, I think if Jalen gets those looks again, he’s going to make the Bucs pay. If Bowles continues running their five-man fire zone pressures, the Eagles have answers. It’s the max blitz looks that are giving this offense problems right now.
Pay attention to how the Bucs are blitzing, it will be a key factor in how this offense performs tonight.
